In this episode, I sit down with Carlo Masala, one of Europe’s leading security scholars, to discuss his new book If Russia Wins. Our conversation explores the possibility of a Russian victory in a limited war against NATO.
We discuss why Carlo Masala chose a scenario-based approach, how a limited Russian incursion could unravel NATO’s Article 5, and why Europe may be far less prepared — militarily, politically, and societally — than many assume. The discussion also covers Germany’s role, the limits of European defense without the United States, Ukraine’s place in a future security architecture, and why resilient societies may matter more than tanks and fighter jets.
This is a wide-ranging conversation about deterrence, rearmament, political leadership, and the uncomfortable trade-offs Europe faces in the years ahead.
00:00 Why this book
02:10 The Narva scenario
05:00 Europe’s return to normal
09:40 Breaking NATO’s promise
12:30 Can Europe defend itself?
15:00 NATO without the US
19:30 Germany must lead
27:20 Who will fight?
29:50 Resilient societies
31:10 Ukraine’s future role
38:50 A hyper-nationalist world
48:00 Final reflections
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📝 Transcript
Transcribing... This may take a few minutes.
Top Comments
@eustacemcgoodboy9702
I'm in Latvia. Believe me, Russia winning or losing matters a lot more to me than it does to you in Germany or whatever, Spain.
689 likes
@drewholiday5085
Wow that's an unexpected collaboration but a welcome one. Carlo Masala is one of the best experts in Germany in a military sense.
303 likes
@Айбек-з6щ
One of the few very sober voices in Europe. Russia's been agitating its population with "Russia is rising from its knees" and "we can repeat" referring to the Fall of Berlin 1945 for over 20 years now. Thanks Anders and Carlo!
329 likes
@daniell1483
Things are worse than Carlo thought when he wrote the book? Damn, that's scary.
113 likes
@MrBrunoMi
French viewer speaking here:
Thanks to Anders for inviting Carlo — both of you are among my favorite military analysts.
That said, I think the claim that France is “almost bankrupt” and therefore unable to make any additional military effort is a bit too quick.
France is fiscally constrained, yes - high debt, persistent deficits, and limited political room for maneuver. But that’s not the same as being close to insolvency, nor does it mean France lacks the capacity to adjust defense spending if the strategic context requires it. The real constraints are political and social, not existential.
As a matter of fact, France might not be willing to spend much more right now - and I agree that it should — but it is certainly far less shy than Germany (as of today) when it comes to actually intervening militarily, should the situation require it.
In past crises, European states have always found the resources when security became a priority. The question is less can France spend more, and more how and with what political legitimacy.
Still, great discussion - always valuable to hear these perspectives.
178 likes
@art2voice
The war paradoxon the German society refuses to understand: the more Germany prepares for a possible war today, the more unlikely a war ist going to happen tomorrow. This worked in the cold war, the same way it would work out now.
148 likes
@mischan
Omg, the upload is not even 20 minutes old, the video is obviously much longer and it is already full with the worst comments. Thanks Anders for this interview. Looking forward to watching it in full and am thankful for people like you making insights accessible
194 likes
@Olaf_DD
As a German I think we are lucky to have Carlo Masalla.
233 likes
@marcuspierrebrandt665
As a German I'm verry proud of a seldom clear and common senseed German dude.
I wish someone like Marsala would stay in power here.
128 likes
@anderseriksen2282
- I seldon use words like these: ***Brilliant, - breath taking, - thoughtfull - highly interesting,- and SPOT ON our situation*** - - but here on this talk/interview I will use all those words.
- A huge applaus to Carlo Masala for hes honest reply, but also the deept of hes analysis - Thank you Sir.
Ofc Anders we all know for hes desperate search to keep us updatet and inform`d.
A huge kudos to both of you - I surely will share this video.
Anders Eriksen
79 likes
@davidzolcer4848
Slovakian citizen here - I wish my government would listen more to experts such as this and would be part of efforts such as this! We’d benefit the most and it would kind of cost us the least 😢 Apologies for our current bolshevik pro-Putin incompetent government now!
349 likes
@annablomgren7085
This was hyper-interesting. Thank you Anders and Mr Masala.
54 likes
@Foxtrot24
⭐️⭐️⭐️Two of the best millitary analysts in Europe. Excellent podcast!
403 likes
@stephendixon8575
Anders, this was TRULY fantastic and utterly fascinating - Well done and more of the same if you can in future please 🤞🙏🙌🏻